Session Information
| Session | Poster Session | | Date | Monday (2008-04-07) | | Time | 5:00 PM - 7:00 PM | | Room | Grand Terrace |
Presentation Information
| Presenter | Sarah Olson | | Title | Malaria patterns and hydrology in the Amazon: Will land use and cover changes alter risk? | | Affiliation | University of Wisconsin - Madison | | Authors | Sarah Olson, Laurent Durieux, Eric Elguero, Jonathan Foley, Ron Gagnon, Jean-François Guegan, Jonathan Patz | | Keywords | Hydrology, Malaria, Precipitation, River, Seasonality | | Presentation Type | Poster | Abstract:
The World Health Organization, estimates that 42% of malaria cases are “associated with policies and practices regarding land use, deforestation, water resource management, settlement siting and modified house design”. This estimate was drawn from expert opinion and studies performed at small scales, but little research has investigated the cumulative impacts of land use and land cover changes occurring in the Amazon Basin on malaria. Much less is understood about the impact of regional hydrology on malaria risk. To understand how hydrology and land use practices may alter malaria patterns in the Basin we present an analysis of municipio (n=755) malaria case data in the Legal Amazon and monthly precipitation patterns for the 1990s. Climate data originated from the CRU TS 2.1 half-degree grid resolution climate data set. We present a hierarchical (random coefficients) log-linear Poisson model relating malaria incidence to precipitation and modeled indicators of hydrology for both municipos and states. At the Basin scale precipitation and cases show strong relationships. Precipitation and cases are asynchronous across the period of observation, but detailed inspection of states and individual municipios reveal geographic dependencies of precipitation, regional hydrology and malaria incidence. Future research will link our model with land use change scenarios for 2020 and 2050. |
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