Session Information
| Session | Poster Session | | Date | Monday (2008-04-07) | | Time | 5:00 PM - 7:00 PM | | Room | Grand Terrace |
Presentation Information
| Presenter | Amy Pocewicz | | Title | Projecting the future for sage-grouse under alternative energy development scenarios | | Affiliation | The Nature Conservancy | | Authors | Holly Copeland, Tom Christiansen, Kevin Doherty, David Naugle, Amy Pocewicz, Brian Rutledge, Tom Rinkes, Joseph Kiesecker | | Keywords | Alternative futures, Gas, Oil, Predictive modeling, Sage-grouse | | Presentation Type | Poster | Abstract:
Sage-grouse populations are declining throughout the western United States. This trend is likely to continue, given projected global energy needs, the impacts to sage-grouse associated with oil and gas development, and the wealth of energy resources in the region. It remains unclear how much and where future oil and gas development will occur and what the impact may be to sage-grouse populations. Here we will discuss the development of a predictive model for oil and gas development in Sage-Grouse Management Areas I and II in the U.S., including Montana, Wyoming, Colorado, Idaho, Utah, and the Dakotas. Probabilities of future energy production were determined from data collected from current producing and non-producing wells and a series of geological variables, using Random Forest statistical models. The resulting probability map constrained the location of future development, and three alternative rates of development determined the number of new wells established in each scenario. We estimated sage-grouse population losses under the three scenarios. When overlain with the density of sage-grouse leks, our results also identify the best locations to focus sage-grouse conservation activities. Within these areas, we will also quantify the other threats (wind power, climate change, residential development, coal) that may impact these populations. Our findings will provide options to decision makers to safe guard sage-grouse persistence with responsible energy development. |
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