Summary: 2005 RPA Timber Assessment Update
The 2005 update base projection envisions a 38-percent expansion in total U.S.
forest products consumption to 27.0 billion cubic feet per year by 2050. Per capita consumption will decline slightly below historical averages. Imports will continue to rise but supply a smaller portion of the growth in domestic wood requirements (consumption plus exports), and domestic sources a correspondingly larger share, over the next 50 years than was the case during the previous five decades. At the same time, real product price growth will fall below long-term historical rates for all products.Product Output and Trade
Domestic product output will shift toward pulp and paper products, with a
declining share for lumber and a steady share for composites. The share of imports in U.S. timber consumption will rise from 25 percent
to nearly 30 percent over the next decade, then decline to 28 percent by 2050 as domestic production expands. U.S. softwood lumber production will expand 20 percent by 2050 relative to recent levels with increases primarily in the South and Pacific Northwest West. Pulp and paper production will increase primarily in the South.
Canadas share of U.S. lumber consumption will rise to nearly 39 percent
in the period to 2015 as salvage of mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) mortality in interior British Columbia proceeds, then decline to 26 percent by 2050 in the face of growing restrictions on allowable cut and strong competition from offshore imports. Offshore softwood lumber imports (from Europe and the Southern Hemisphere) will capture nearly 15 percent of U.S. consumption by 2020.
Oriented strand board (OSB) will largely displace softwood plywood in all markets; hardwood lumber output will show little growth.
Timberland Area and Forest Management Types
U.S. timberland area will decline 3 percent by 2050 owing primarily to
conversion to developed uses. Land held by the firms integrated to processing will continue to decline
through sales to institutional investors (timberland investment organization and real estate investment trusts). The area of planted pine in the South will continue to expand as U.S. timber production is concentrated on fewer acres. By 2050, 54 percent of U.S. softwood harvest will come from 9 percent of the U.S. timberland base.
Hardwood types will continue to dominate the forest land base in the South (60 percent) and throughout the Eastern United States (67 percent).
Timber Harvest and Inventories
U.S. softwood growing-stock removals rise 24 percent over the projection, driven by expansion of pulpwood consumption (for OSB and wood pulp).
Hardwood removals rise 15 percent by 2025, again owing to expansion of pulpwood use.
Aggregate U.S. forest inventory rises 35 percent for all owners; cut is less than growth over the next five decades.
For all regions and private owner groups, softwood inventories rise by 2050
despite increasing removals. Private hardwood inventories rise sharply by 2050, with continued expansion in the North offsetting modest reductions in the South.
Prices
Solid-wood products prices will rise at rates less than 0.3 percent per year, well below historical experience.
Prices of paper and paperboard are expected to decline in real terms.